How Long Will Trump Last as US President?

By Paul Alexander Wolf

Back in 2016, I wrote two modest blog pieces—neither viral nor prophetic, but written with a sincere sense of unease:

• Why Americans Should Oppose an Upcoming Donald Trump

• An Assessment on Donald Trump and the Potential Aftermath

At the time, many hoped his election was a one-off—a storm to be weathered. But now, in 2025, the storm has circled back. And unlike last time, the world seems more frayed, more fatigued, and less convinced that America’s institutions are strong enough to withstand the wind.

This article is not a prophecy. It’s a reflection—with humour, frustration, and a sober nod to the deeper implications of leadership built on showmanship, tribalism, and transactional loyalty. It asks: how long can it last? And what happens to us all if it does?

In business, Trump’s history is peppered with bankruptcies, failed ventures, and moments where the showmanship was, quite frankly, the only thing that stuck. Now, as President, those same tactics are playing out on the global stage. His “art of the deal” may have worked in a world of real estate, but in the halls of power, it’s harder to play fast and loose with billions of lives and economies. Yet the question remains: how long will it last?

Trump’s current Presidency continues to raise alarms. If you’ve been watching closely, you’ve seen how he’s doubled down on every controversial move, solidified his base with dramatic rhetoric, and worked to dismantle key democratic norms—one tweet, one tariff, one executive order at a time. But while his political strategies may be familiar to anyone who’s seen him speak to a crowd, the real question here is how the international community will react to his unchecked, sometimes reckless decisions. Can he continue without causing irreparable harm?

The key issue isn’t even his policies—they’re a loud and chaotic mix of ‘America First’ rhetoric, nationalism, and a brand of populism that confuses charisma with substance. The question is about the durability of such a leadership style. As other nations look for ways to work around Trump’s isolating stance, the rest of the world has options. There’s only so long the US can continue down this path of aggressive trade wars, retreating alliances, and uncertainty before the country’s international influence starts to erode.

One thing I know is this: the predictive value of a productive Presidency under Trump seems unfortunately very poor. His administration’s early missteps, coupled with a total lack of long-term vision, don’t exactly scream “sustainable future.” And the bigger the spectacle, the higher the stakes. History will look at these years not just through the lens of policy, but of how resilient and adaptable the US truly is in the face of global resistance. The implications of Trump’s decisions will be felt for decades—not just by America but by everyone on the planet.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but as Trump continues his presidency, the cracks in the foundations of both his leadership and America’s place in the world seem more and more visible. Perhaps there’s an end in sight—or perhaps we’re stuck in a perpetual loop, trying to outlast his reign of unconventionalism.

But what does all of this mean for us, here in Australia? Or elsewhere in the world? The consequences will be just as relevant, whether you’re managing a startup in Melbourne or running a government office in London. We may be remote from the political epicenter of the US, but the ripples of Trump’s actions touch everyone. He might be playing the role of a statesman, but the world is watching closely—and in some cases, waiting for the US to make a misstep it can’t recover from. If the US gets too isolated, the question becomes not how long will Trump last? but how long will the US, as we know it, be able to function as a superpower in its own right?

Afterword

In reflecting on the legacy of Donald Trump, I can’t help but think back to 2016, when I first started writing about the possibility of his rise to power and the potential aftermath. Those early articles, Why Americans Should Oppose an Upcoming Donald Trump and An Assessment on Donald Trump and the Potential Aftermath, were written as humble attempts to make sense of an unpredictable, chaotic political landscape. They weren’t prescient; in fact, they were the product of an outsider’s 🇦🇺 perspective—someone looking in from a faraway continent, trying to grasp what was unfolding and what the long-term consequences might be.

Back then, the rhetoric was loud, and the world was on edge, but it was still just speculation. Fast forward to today, and it’s not just rhetoric. It’s the reality we’re living in. What has changed isn’t just Trump’s presence on the world stage, but the way his decisions ripple through not only the US, but across the globe—affecting trade, diplomacy, and international alliances.

Looking back at my early reflections, I find a mixture of validation and surprise. In some ways, everything I worried about then seems to be coming true. And yet, in others, I didn’t fully predict how the global community would respond, or how much of the world would continue to bet on America’s resilience despite all the chaos.

But it’s not about me—or even about Trump, really. It’s about us all. About how we, as ordinary people across the globe, continue to navigate this increasingly fractured world, where the power of our voices is so often drowned out by louder, more powerful forces.

It’s also about those who are brave enough to stand up, speak out, and act—whether in support or opposition to Trump’s leadership. In the end, it’s we who hold the power, even when it feels like our hands are tied by bigger, more intimidating forces. The questions I raised back then are still on the table today: How long will Trump last? And what does that mean for the future of democracy, both in the US and globally?

I certainly don’t have all the answers. But I’m hoping that through these reflections—sometimes funny, sometimes sobering—we can continue to question, analyze, and ultimately take action, wherever we are.

So, whether you’re reading from Australia, the US, or anywhere in between, let’s remember: change doesn’t come from the top down. It starts with us.

Paul Alexander Wolf