Thirty-two years ago, I was training in England when computers first infiltrated GP practices. It was in Nantwich, Cheshire. Beautiful place. The older generation grumbled and clung to their handwritten notes, their Parker pens wielded with the authority of tradition. Within a year, even the most skeptical had conceded—if only for prescriptions. Fast forward to today: paper records are extinct, patient files exist only in the digital ether, and if the power goes out, so does half the healthcare system.

Fast Forward: The GP of 2057

Now, let’s project 32 years ahead. Will GPs still exist as we know them? Or will they become glorified physical examination technicians, feeding data into AI systems that conduct history-taking, generate differential diagnoses, and spit out ‘THE diagnosis’ with statistical precision?

Imagine this scenario:
• A patient walks into the consultation room. Instead of a doctor’s probing questions, an AI-powered avatar gathers their history, analyzing vocal tone, word choice, and microexpressions for signs of depression, anxiety, or deception.
• The GP, freed from the drudgery of typing, performs only the physical examination—perhaps enhanced by wearable diagnostics that feed real-time data into the system.
• AI suggests blood tests and imaging, referencing the latest RACGP guidelines in milliseconds.
• If a referral is needed, AI dictates it in flawless medical prose, automatically selecting the most qualified and available specialist (who, crucially, is still alive—something our current system sometimes fails to verify).

Efficiency vs. The Human Touch: The Economic Reckoning

This future is not just about technology—it’s about cost. Will governments, particularly in Australia’s Medicare-dependent system, decide that AI reduces the need for so many GPs?

Consider this:
• AI will be faster, more consistent, and potentially cheaper than a human GP.
• If Medicare sees an opportunity to cut costs by automating frontline medicine, we could see a radical reduction in GP numbers, leaving only a skeletal workforce for procedures, complex cases, and human oversight. Dear me!
• Some practices may disappear altogether, unable to compete with AI-driven telehealth megaclinics that can see 10 times as many patients with half the staff.

The Fate of Specialists and Other Healthcare Domains

If GPs are at risk, what about specialists? Some fields—like surgery—will remain hands-on and irreplaceable. I will come this in the next article. But in diagnostic-heavy specialties like radiology, dermatology, and even psychiatry, AI could become the primary decision-maker, with human specialists reduced to a supervisory role.

And what of aged care, palliative medicine, psychotherapy? Will AI attempt “empathetic algorithms” for bedside manner? Will robots provide end-of-life counseling?

A Future Without Nostalgia?

The shift to AI in medicine is both exhilarating and unnerving. Doctors once prided themselves on clinical intuition, the art of medicine honed through experience. Will that intuition become obsolete, replaced by algorithms immune to bias, but also devoid of human nuance?

One thing is certain: in 32 years, the world of medicine will be unrecognizable.
And if you think you can resist change, just remember the old GPs who once scoffed at computers—only to find themselves using them for every script within a year.

Paul Alexander Wolf